Toyota delivered 16,342 vehicles in Australia in May 2026. BYD delivered 8,211. That is a two-to-one gap and Toyota is comfortably the brand of record in this country, the way it has been for over twenty years. The interesting story is that the gap was twice that wide twelve months ago, and the rate at which it is closing is not slowing down.

The growth rate is the story

BYD's May 2026 result was 155 per cent up on May 2025. Year-to-date through April, BYD is up 110.8 per cent. By any standard reading of automotive sales, that is not normal. Brands do not double in a year unless they have a category-defining product, a price war that competitors have not joined, or both. BYD has both.

Toyota's response so far has been the right one. Extra stock secured for the back half of 2026, a higher local sales forecast revised up rather than down, and the RAV4 PHEV brought forward by a month to plug the only meaningful product gap in the Toyota Australia range. That last move tells you the company knows the BYD Sealion 6 PHEV is taking buyers it used to count on.

Where the volume actually comes from

Toyota wins SUVs. The RAV4 is still the country's best-selling SUV, the LandCruiser Prado is the best-selling large 4x4, and the Kluger has a quiet but consistent run in the family segment. The Camry is now an EV-resistant taxi-and-fleet workhorse and sells in the same numbers it always has.

BYD wins three things Toyota cannot match in 2026. PHEV utes, where the Shark 6 outsold every other plug-in ute in May and Toyota does not have one. Affordable EV SUVs, where the Atto 3, Sealion 7 and the new Sealion 6 PHEV cover three price points that the bZ4X and a future Toyota EV will struggle to match. And the vertical integration story, where BYD owns the batteries, the chips, the manufacturing and as of last month, the ships that move them.

Toyota wins resale value, dealer density (1,800 plus service points in Australia), reliability data that the industry actually quotes, and a hybrid powertrain that has had two decades of customer trust built into it.

What happens between now and Christmas

Three things are worth watching. One: BYD's stock pipeline. The Zhengzhou car carrier delivered 4,810 vehicles to three Australian ports this week. The Sealion 6 Extended Range PHEV is the new arrival to watch, and the Denza brand has just landed its first volume on Australian dealer floors. The supply problem that has bottlenecked BYD's growth in some other markets does not exist here.

Two: Toyota's PHEV adoption rate. Sean Hanley, Toyota Australia's VP, has publicly forecast that 30 per cent of first-year RAV4 sales will be PHEV. If he is right, that is roughly 20,000 RAV4 PHEVs a year on Australian roads from a standing start. If he is short of the forecast, it is because BYD got there first.

Three: EOFY. June is traditionally the strongest sales month of the year, and brands make a final push before 30 June. Toyota's RAV4 PHEV arriving early is partly a play for this. BYD's $3,000 cashback on the Sealion 5, Sealion 6, Sealion 8 and Shark 6 Premium until 30 June is the same move from the other direction. Whoever wins June wins narrative momentum into the back half of the year.

The honest read

Toyota will be Australia's number one brand at the end of 2026. By a margin. The question worth asking is what number two looks like, and whether BYD is closer to half of Toyota's volume than it is to Hyundai's. As of May 2026, the answer to both is yes.

Everyone else is now racing for third.