Dealers group says Chinese made cars will hit 58 percent of the Australian market by 2035

The Australian Automotive Dealer Association (AADA) is forecasting that Chinese made vehicles will account for 58 percent of Australia's new car market by 2035, close to 900,000 vehicles a year. That is up from 35.5 percent in June 2026, the month China overtook Japan as the country's largest single source of new vehicles.

The numbers

AADA's forecast puts the current pace of change ahead of what it expected even a year ago. June's 35.5 percent share was itself the month China took the top spot from Japan, and AADA's own reading of the data is that Chinese manufacturers are moving faster than earlier forecasts allowed for, not slower.

Cartell Assessment

A dealer body forecast is not gospel, dealer groups have their own reasons to flag a shift like this loudly, but the trend line underneath it is not in dispute. China has already taken the number one spot from Japan this year, years ahead of most predictions, and AADA's own read is that the pace is accelerating rather than levelling off. If the forecast holds, the brands filling Australian driveways a decade from now, BYD, MG, Chery, GWM and whoever else scales fastest, look very different to the Toyota and Mazda heavy market of the last twenty years.

AU Outlook

Watch the next few VFACTS results for whether Chinese brand share keeps climbing at the same rate that got AADA to this forecast, or whether it plateaus once the cheapest EV and PHEV options get matched by other brands. For buyers, the more useful signal is what this competition is already doing to pricing and equipment levels at the budget end of the market, and that shift is happening now, not in 2035.